Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Spain
89%
Draw
7%
Cape Verde
4%
Actual result: Spain 0 – 0 Cape Verde · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 7%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Spain, negative favours Cape Verde) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Spain - Cape Verde)+2.67
Expected total goals3.65
Expected goals Spain / Cape Verde3.16 / 0.49
Both teams to score (yes / no)36.1% / 63.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.1%
Over 2.5 goals 70.6%
Over 3.5 goals 49.5%
First half
First-half result (Spain / draw / Cape Verde)69.8% / 23.5% / 6.7%
A goal in the first half81.8%
Two or more in the first half47.6%
Half-time then full-time
Spain lead at half-time then Spain win67.5%
Level at half-time then Spain win17.8%
Level at half-time then draw4.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Spain's side
Spain −2.061.4%
Spain −1.7566.7%
Spain −1.572.0%
Spain −1.2576.3%
Spain −1.080.6%
Spain −0.7584.9%
Spain −0.589.2%
Spain −0.2590.9%
Spain draw no bet (0.0)92.6%
Spain +0.2594.4%
Spain +0.596.1%
Spain +0.7596.9%
Spain +1.097.7%
Spain +1.599.4%
Spain +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Spain win1.12
Draw14.59
Cape Verde win25.49
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.40
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
3–0
13.7%
2–0
13.0%
4–0
10.8%
1–0
9.0%
5–0
6.8%
3–1
6.7%
Goal margin
Spain wins by more than 1 goals72%
Cape Verde wins by more than 1 goals1%