Portuguese Primeira Liga

Sporting Lisbon vs Guimaraes prediction

3 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Sporting Lisbon vs Guimaraes (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 15/08/2026, finished 3-2: Sporting Lisbon won. Before the match Jarvis gave Sporting Lisbon 73%, the draw 17% and Guimaraes 10%; the actual result had a 73% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Sporting Lisbon

73%

Draw

17%

Guimaraes

10%

Actual result: Sporting Lisbon 3 – 2 Guimaraes · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 73% ✓

Probability trajectory · full match

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Lisbon, negative favours Guimaraes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Tap a row to see how that market has moved.

Supremacy (Sporting Lisbon - Guimaraes)+1.57

Expected total goals3.05

Expected goals Sporting Lisbon / Guimaraes2.31 / 0.74

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sporting Lisbon win1.38

Draw5.81

Guimaraes win9.80

Over 2.51.70

Under 2.52.43

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 2.5 goals58.8%

Over 3.5 goals36.4%

Over 1.5 goals80.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sporting Lisbon's side

Sporting Lisbon −1.549.3%

Sporting Lisbon −1.2555.1%

Sporting Lisbon −1.7543.9%

Sporting Lisbon −1.061.0%

Sporting Lisbon −2.038.5%

Sporting Lisbon −0.7566.8%

Sporting Lisbon −0.572.6%

Sporting Lisbon −0.2576.9%

Sporting Lisbon draw no bet (0.0)81.2%

Sporting Lisbon +0.2585.5%

Sporting Lisbon +0.589.8%

Sporting Lisbon +0.7591.6%

Sporting Lisbon +1.093.5%

Sporting Lisbon +1.597.2%

Sporting Lisbon +2.098.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Goal margin

Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals49%

Guimaraes wins by more than 1 goals3%

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.2% / 52.8%

First half

First-half result (Sporting Lisbon / draw / Guimaraes)53.2% / 35.1% / 11.7%

A goal in the first half74.6%

Two or more in the first half40.0%

Half-time then full-time

Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win49.2%

Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win20.5%

Level at half-time then draw10.5%

Other matches on 15/08 (GMT+7)

Klaksvikar Itrottarfelag vs Lech Poznan02:00 · Europa League0–5

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.