Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
The Strongest
33%
Bolivar
44%
Actual result: The Strongest 1 – 1 Bolivar · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours The Strongest, negative favours Bolivar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (The Strongest - Bolivar)-0.27
Expected total goals4.03
Expected goals The Strongest / Bolivar1.88 / 2.15
Both teams to score (yes / no)76.3% / 23.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 92.5%
Over 2.5 goals 76.7%
Over 3.5 goals 57.3%
First half
First-half result (The Strongest / draw / Bolivar)27.7% / 38.0% / 34.3%
A goal in the first half81.0%
Two or more in the first half56.8%
Half-time then full-time
Bolivar lead at half-time then Bolivar win27.0%
The Strongest lead at half-time then The Strongest win19.8%
Level at half-time then Bolivar win13.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from The Strongest's side
The Strongest −2.013.0%
The Strongest −1.7515.5%
The Strongest −1.518.0%
The Strongest −1.2521.8%
The Strongest −1.025.6%
The Strongest −0.7529.4%
The Strongest −0.533.1%
The Strongest −0.2539.0%
The Strongest draw no bet (0.0)44.8%
The Strongest +0.2550.6%
The Strongest +0.556.4%
The Strongest +0.7560.8%
The Strongest +1.065.2%
The Strongest +1.573.9%
The Strongest +2.080.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
The Strongest win3.02
Draw4.29
Bolivar win2.30
Over 2.51.30
Under 2.54.28
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
The Strongest wins by more than 1 goals18%
Bolivar wins by more than 1 goals26%
