Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Vancouver Whitecaps
71%
FC Juarez
12%
Actual result: Vancouver Whitecaps 1 – 3 FC Juarez · FC Juarez winJarvis gave this outcome: 12%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Vancouver Whitecaps, negative favours FC Juarez) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Vancouver Whitecaps - FC Juarez)+1.55
Expected total goals3.43
Expected goals Vancouver Whitecaps / FC Juarez2.49 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.5% / 43.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.3%
Over 2.5 goals 66.6%
Over 3.5 goals 44.9%
First half
First-half result (Vancouver Whitecaps / draw / FC Juarez)52.5% / 34.5% / 13.1%
A goal in the first half77.8%
Two or more in the first half46.6%
Half-time then full-time
Vancouver Whitecaps lead at half-time then Vancouver Whitecaps win48.2%
Level at half-time then Vancouver Whitecaps win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw10.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Vancouver Whitecaps's side
Vancouver Whitecaps −2.039.0%
Vancouver Whitecaps −1.7544.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps −1.549.2%
Vancouver Whitecaps −1.2554.6%
Vancouver Whitecaps −1.059.9%
Vancouver Whitecaps −0.7565.2%
Vancouver Whitecaps −0.570.6%
Vancouver Whitecaps −0.2575.0%
Vancouver Whitecaps draw no bet (0.0)79.5%
Vancouver Whitecaps +0.2584.0%
Vancouver Whitecaps +0.588.4%
Vancouver Whitecaps +0.7590.4%
Vancouver Whitecaps +1.092.3%
Vancouver Whitecaps +1.596.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps +2.097.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Vancouver Whitecaps win1.42
Draw5.60
FC Juarez win8.65
Over 2.51.50
Under 2.53.00
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Vancouver Whitecaps wins by more than 1 goals49%
FC Juarez wins by more than 1 goals4%
