Croatia 2–1 Ghana: how the Jarvis supercomputer's prediction held up

Croatia 2–1 Ghana: three precious points in Philadelphia

In Philadelphia, Croatia went into their Group L fixture on 27 June as clear favourites, and they lived up to expectations. The 2–1 win over Ghana secured three important points, all the more valuable given that the Balkan side had just suffered a heavy 4–2 defeat to England in the previous round, a loss that exposed plenty of problems at the back.

Before kick-off, the Jarvis supercomputer model predicted Croatia with a 53.9% win probability. That call rested on Croatia's greater squad depth, international experience and far richer World Cup pedigree compared with Ghana. The final result showed that Jarvis read the game correctly.

How it unfolded: Sucic opens, Vlasic settles it

On 31 minutes, young midfielder Petar Sucic opened the scoring for Croatia, a fitting reward for the number 17's place in the starting eleven. Croatia protected their one-goal lead until Ghana found a moment of their own.

On 73 minutes, centre-back Derrick Luckassen pushed forward and levelled it at 1–1 for Ghana, keeping alive their hopes of taking something from the game. But the African side's joy lasted only ten minutes. On 83 minutes, Nikola Vlasic delivered the decisive blow, putting Croatia ahead 2–1, and that is how it finished.

All three goals in this match came from players who started, and all were scored in open play, with no penalties. The fact that Croatia had two different scorers shows that their attacking threat did not depend on a single individual.

Checking the Jarvis prediction: a 53.9% probability comes true

Before the match, Jarvis produced three probabilities: a Croatia win at 53.9%, a draw at 29.4% and a Ghana win at 16.6%. The most likely scenario is exactly what happened, meaning Jarvis's result prediction for this game was spot on.

What stands out is that 53.9% was far from a foregone conclusion. Jarvis still assigned 29.4% to the draw, and the way the game played out reflected that caution: Luckassen's equaliser on 73 minutes brought the match back level, and had Vlasic not struck on 83 minutes, a draw was entirely possible. Ghana, at 16.6%, played the part of underdogs who could cause problems through pace and moments of individual quality, but it was not enough against Croatia's overall class.

The starting line-ups

Croatia started with goalkeeper Livakovic; a back line of Stanisic, Pongracic and Sutalo; a crowded midfield of Kovacic, Modric, Vlasic, Baturina and Sucic; and Perisic and Budimir further forward. The experienced core of Modric, Kovacic and Perisic remained the anchor, while the two younger names, Sucic and Vlasic, were the ones who found the net.

Ghana lined up with goalkeeper Asare; a defence of Adjetey, Mensah, Luckassen and Senaya; a midfield of Partey, Sibo, Semenyo and Owusu; and Jordan Ayew and Kamaldeen Sulemana up front. Ironically, their only scorer was centre-back Luckassen, while the attacking spearheads could not break through Livakovic.

You can find more standout fixtures in our daily predictions hub.

The bottom line

Croatia won 2–1, exactly the most likely scenario Jarvis had flagged, a victory that helped them regain their balance after the loss to England. Ghana may have left empty-handed, but they still showed fighting spirit, following on from their emotional 1–0 win over Panama, yet the gap in class between the two sides was laid bare in the final ten minutes.

For Nhipbong, this match was a plus for Jarvis's reliability: the model not only picked the right winner but also sensibly quantified the risk of a draw, which very nearly came to pass. Group L promises plenty more twists, and we will keep updating our predictions for the fixtures to come.