Match summary
Croatia vs Ghana (World Cup), 28/06/2026, finished 2-1: Croatia won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Croatia
54%
Draw
29%
Ghana
17%
Actual result: Croatia 2 – 1 Ghana · Croatia winJarvis gave this outcome: 54% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Croatia, negative favours Ghana) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Croatia - Ghana)+0.80
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Croatia / Ghana1.62 / 0.82
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.3% / 52.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.3%
Over 2.5 goals 44.1%
Over 3.5 goals 23.0%
First half
First-half result (Croatia / draw / Ghana)38.3% / 46.6% / 15.1%
A goal in the first half64.9%
Two or more in the first half31.8%
Half-time then full-time
Croatia lead at half-time then Croatia win33.9%
Level at half-time then Croatia win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw19.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Croatia's side
Croatia −2.021.8%
Croatia −1.7526.1%
Croatia −1.530.5%
Croatia −1.2536.3%
Croatia −1.042.2%
Croatia −0.7548.1%
Croatia −0.553.9%
Croatia −0.2561.3%
Croatia draw no bet (0.0)68.6%
Croatia +0.2576.0%
Croatia +0.583.4%
Croatia +0.7586.1%
Croatia +1.088.7%
Croatia +1.594.1%
Croatia +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Croatia win1.85
Draw3.40
Ghana win6.01
Over 2.52.27
Under 2.51.79
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
13.9%
1–0
11.8%
2–0
11.4%
0–0
11.0%
2–1
9.4%
3–0
6.2%
Goal margin
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals30%
Ghana wins by more than 1 goals6%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 28/06 (GMT+7)
- Panama vs England04:00 · World Cup0–2
- Colombia vs Portugal06:30 · World Cup0–0
- DR Congo vs Uzbekistan06:30 · World Cup3–1
- Algeria vs Austria09:00 · World Cup3–3
- Jordan vs Argentina09:00 · World Cup1–3
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.