Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AC Monza
33%
Draw
31%
Sassuolo
36%
Actual result: AC Monza 2 – 1 Sassuolo · AC Monza winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AC Monza, negative favours Sassuolo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AC Monza - Sassuolo)-0.06
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals AC Monza / Sassuolo1.33 / 1.39
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.6% / 42.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.9%
Over 2.5 goals 51.1%
Over 3.5 goals 29.0%
First half
First-half result (AC Monza / draw / Sassuolo)26.2% / 45.9% / 27.9%
A goal in the first half68.4%
Two or more in the first half36.8%
Half-time then full-time
Sassuolo lead at half-time then Sassuolo win21.7%
AC Monza lead at half-time then AC Monza win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw19.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AC Monza's side
AC Monza −2.010.8%
AC Monza −1.7513.4%
AC Monza −1.515.9%
AC Monza −1.2520.3%
AC Monza −1.024.6%
AC Monza −0.7528.9%
AC Monza −0.533.3%
AC Monza −0.2540.9%
AC Monza draw no bet (0.0)48.6%
AC Monza +0.2556.2%
AC Monza +0.563.8%
AC Monza +0.7568.4%
AC Monza +1.073.0%
AC Monza +1.582.1%
AC Monza +2.087.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AC Monza win3.01
Draw3.27
Sassuolo win2.77
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.04
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AC Monza wins by more than 1 goals16%
Sassuolo wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards1.1
2.5+ cards in the match9%