Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Monaco
49%
Draw
26%
Lens
24%
Actual result: Monaco 2 – 1 Lens · Monaco winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Monaco, negative favours Lens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Monaco - Lens)+0.58
Expected total goals3.03
Expected goals Monaco / Lens1.80 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.5% / 39.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.1%
Over 2.5 goals 58.3%
Over 3.5 goals 35.9%
First half
First-half result (Monaco / draw / Lens)37.0% / 41.8% / 21.2%
A goal in the first half72.7%
Two or more in the first half41.2%
Half-time then full-time
Monaco lead at half-time then Monaco win30.9%
Level at half-time then Monaco win16.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Monaco's side
Monaco −2.020.6%
Monaco −1.7524.4%
Monaco −1.528.3%
Monaco −1.2533.6%
Monaco −1.038.9%
Monaco −0.7544.1%
Monaco −0.549.4%
Monaco −0.2556.0%
Monaco draw no bet (0.0)62.5%
Monaco +0.2569.1%
Monaco +0.575.7%
Monaco +0.7579.1%
Monaco +1.082.6%
Monaco +1.589.5%
Monaco +2.093.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Monaco win2.02
Draw3.80
Lens win4.11
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.40
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Monaco wins by more than 1 goals28%
Lens wins by more than 1 goals11%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards1.3
2.5+ cards in the match14%