Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bayern Munich
93%
Draw
5%
Union Berlin
2%
Actual result: Bayern Munich 7 – 0 Union Berlin · Bayern Munich winJarvis gave this outcome: 93% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bayern Munich, negative favours Union Berlin) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bayern Munich - Union Berlin)+3.71
Expected total goals5.24
Expected goals Bayern Munich / Union Berlin4.47 / 0.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.7% / 47.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 96.7%
Over 2.5 goals 89.4%
Over 3.5 goals 76.6%
First half
First-half result (Bayern Munich / draw / Union Berlin)77.4% / 17.4% / 5.2%
A goal in the first half90.5%
Two or more in the first half68.2%
Half-time then full-time
Bayern Munich lead at half-time then Bayern Munich win76.0%
Level at half-time then Bayern Munich win14.3%
Union Berlin lead at half-time then Bayern Munich win2.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bayern Munich's side
Bayern Munich −2.076.4%
Bayern Munich −1.7580.0%
Bayern Munich −1.583.7%
Bayern Munich −1.2586.1%
Bayern Munich −1.088.5%
Bayern Munich −0.7590.8%
Bayern Munich −0.593.2%
Bayern Munich −0.2594.4%
Bayern Munich draw no bet (0.0)95.5%
Bayern Munich +0.2596.7%
Bayern Munich +0.597.9%
Bayern Munich +0.7598.3%
Bayern Munich +1.098.7%
Bayern Munich +1.599.5%
Bayern Munich +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bayern Munich win1.07
Draw21.48
Union Berlin win46.81
Over 2.51.12
Under 2.59.42
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bayern Munich wins by more than 1 goals83%
Union Berlin wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners10.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%