Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Alaves
57%
Draw
27%
Valencia
16%
Actual result: Alaves 0 – 1 Valencia · Valencia winJarvis gave this outcome: 16%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Alaves, negative favours Valencia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Alaves - Valencia)+0.88
Expected total goals2.41
Expected goals Alaves / Valencia1.64 / 0.77
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.3% / 55.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.5%
Over 2.5 goals 43.2%
Over 3.5 goals 22.3%
First half
First-half result (Alaves / draw / Valencia)40.5% / 44.8% / 14.8%
A goal in the first half65.3%
Two or more in the first half30.4%
Half-time then full-time
Alaves lead at half-time then Alaves win35.9%
Level at half-time then Alaves win20.0%
Level at half-time then draw17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Alaves's side
Alaves −2.023.0%
Alaves −1.7527.6%
Alaves −1.532.1%
Alaves −1.2538.4%
Alaves −1.044.6%
Alaves −0.7550.9%
Alaves −0.557.2%
Alaves −0.2563.9%
Alaves draw no bet (0.0)70.5%
Alaves +0.2577.2%
Alaves +0.583.9%
Alaves +0.7586.7%
Alaves +1.089.4%
Alaves +1.595.0%
Alaves +2.096.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Alaves win1.75
Draw3.75
Valencia win6.20
Over 2.52.31
Under 2.51.76
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Alaves wins by more than 1 goals32%
Valencia wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match54%