Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Elche
8%
Draw
12%
Real Madrid
80%
Actual result: Elche 2 – 3 Real Madrid · Real Madrid winJarvis gave this outcome: 80% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Elche, negative favours Real Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Elche - Real Madrid)-2.10
Expected total goals3.79
Expected goals Elche / Real Madrid0.84 / 2.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.9% / 46.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.0%
Over 2.5 goals 73.0%
Over 3.5 goals 52.5%
First half
First-half result (Elche / draw / Real Madrid)10.8% / 28.0% / 61.2%
A goal in the first half82.1%
Two or more in the first half50.6%
Half-time then full-time
Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win57.6%
Level at half-time then Real Madrid win18.6%
Level at half-time then draw6.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Elche's side
Elche −2.01.4%
Elche −1.751.8%
Elche −1.52.2%
Elche −1.253.6%
Elche −1.05.0%
Elche −0.756.4%
Elche −0.57.9%
Elche −0.2510.9%
Elche draw no bet (0.0)13.9%
Elche +0.2517.0%
Elche +0.520.0%
Elche +0.7524.8%
Elche +1.029.7%
Elche +1.539.3%
Elche +2.049.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Elche win12.73
Draw8.22
Real Madrid win1.25
Over 2.51.37
Under 2.53.71
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Elche wins by more than 1 goals2%
Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals61%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match45%