Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
41%
Draw
30%
Espanyol
29%
Actual result: Rayo Vallecano 2 – 1 Espanyol · Rayo Vallecano winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rayo Vallecano, negative favours Espanyol) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Rayo Vallecano - Espanyol)+0.24
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Rayo Vallecano / Espanyol1.37 / 1.13
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.9% / 48.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.7%
Over 3.5 goals 24.3%
First half
First-half result (Rayo Vallecano / draw / Espanyol)30.7% / 45.7% / 23.6%
A goal in the first half66.4%
Two or more in the first half32.2%
Half-time then full-time
Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time then Rayo Vallecano win24.5%
Level at half-time then draw18.8%
Espanyol lead at half-time then Espanyol win17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Rayo Vallecano's side
Rayo Vallecano −2.013.6%
Rayo Vallecano −1.7516.7%
Rayo Vallecano −1.519.9%
Rayo Vallecano −1.2525.1%
Rayo Vallecano −1.030.4%
Rayo Vallecano −0.7535.7%
Rayo Vallecano −0.541.0%
Rayo Vallecano −0.2548.4%
Rayo Vallecano draw no bet (0.0)55.8%
Rayo Vallecano +0.2563.1%
Rayo Vallecano +0.570.5%
Rayo Vallecano +0.7574.8%
Rayo Vallecano +1.079.1%
Rayo Vallecano +1.587.7%
Rayo Vallecano +2.091.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Rayo Vallecano win2.44
Draw3.38
Espanyol win3.39
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals20%
Espanyol wins by more than 1 goals12%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%