FIFA World Cup
Argentina vs Cape Verde prediction
Argentina
3 – 2
Full-time
Cape Verde
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Argentina
86%
Draw
11%
Cape Verde
4%
Actual result: Argentina 3 – 2 Cape Verde · Argentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 86% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Argentina, negative favours Cape Verde) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Argentina - Cape Verde)+2.25
Expected total goals2.97
Expected goals Argentina / Cape Verde2.61 / 0.36
Both teams to score (yes / no)27.4% / 72.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.2%
Over 2.5 goals 56.9%
Over 3.5 goals 34.5%
First half
First-half result (Argentina / draw / Cape Verde)63.8% / 30.9% / 5.3%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half38.2%
Half-time then full-time
Argentina ahead then Argentina win61.9%
level then Argentina win21.6%
level then draw7.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Argentina
Argentina give 2 trái (−2.0)52.9%
Argentina give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)58.8%
Argentina give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)64.8%
Argentina give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)70.0%
Argentina give 1 trái (−1.0)75.3%
Argentina give 3/4 trái (−0.75)80.6%
Argentina give nửa trái (−0.5)85.8%
Argentina give 1/4 trái (−0.25)88.5%
Level ball (0.0)91.1%
Argentina receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)93.7%
Argentina receive nửa trái (+0.5)96.4%
Argentina receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)97.1%
Argentina receive 1 trái (+1.0)97.9%
Argentina receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)99.5%
Argentina receive 2 trái (+2.0)99.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Argentina win1.17
Draw9.50
Cape Verde win27.43
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
17.5%
3–0
15.3%
1–0
13.8%
4–0
10.0%
2–1
6.2%
3–1
5.4%
Goal margin
Argentina wins by more than 1 goals65%
Cape Verde wins by more than 1 goals0%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.2
2.5+ cards in the match38%