FIFA World Cup
Australia vs Egypt prediction
Australia
1 – 1
Full-time
Egypt
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Australia
25%
Draw
35%
Egypt
40%
Actual result: Australia 1 – 1 Egypt · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 35%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Australia, negative favours Egypt) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Australia - Egypt)-0.28
Expected total goals1.95
Expected goals Australia / Egypt0.83 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.1% / 59.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.1%
Over 2.5 goals 30.9%
Over 3.5 goals 13.3%
First half
First-half result (Australia / draw / Egypt)19.4% / 52.4% / 28.2%
A goal in the first half57.1%
Two or more in the first half23.1%
Half-time then full-time
level then draw25.0%
Egypt ahead then Egypt win23.4%
level then Egypt win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Australia
Australia give 2 trái (−2.0)5.5%
Australia give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)7.1%
Australia give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)8.8%
Australia give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)12.8%
Australia give 1 trái (−1.0)16.9%
Australia give 3/4 trái (−0.75)20.9%
Australia give nửa trái (−0.5)24.9%
Australia give 1/4 trái (−0.25)33.8%
Level ball (0.0)42.6%
Australia receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)51.4%
Australia receive nửa trái (+0.5)60.2%
Australia receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)65.8%
Australia receive 1 trái (+1.0)71.4%
Australia receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)82.5%
Australia receive 2 trái (+2.0)88.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Australia win4.01
Draw2.84
Egypt win2.51
Over 2.53.24
Under 2.51.45
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–0
16.4%
1–1
15.4%
0–1
13.8%
1–0
9.7%
0–2
8.9%
1–2
7.4%
Goal margin
Australia wins by more than 1 goals9%
Egypt wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners8.8
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.5
2.5+ cards in the match45%