Portuguese Primeira Liga

Arouca vs Moreirense prediction

4 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Arouca vs Moreirense (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 17/08/2026, finished 4-0: Arouca won. Before the match Jarvis gave Arouca 51%, the draw 29% and Moreirense 20%; the actual result had a 51% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Arouca

51%

Draw

29%

Moreirense

20%

Actual result: Arouca 4 – 0 Moreirense · Arouca winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arouca, negative favours Moreirense) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Arouca - Moreirense)+0.63

Expected total goals2.31

Expected goals Arouca / Moreirense1.47 / 0.84

Both teams to score (yes / no)45.0% / 55.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 68.3%

Over 2.5 goals 40.7%

Over 3.5 goals 20.3%

First half

First-half result (Arouca / draw / Moreirense)36.1% / 46.4% / 17.5%

A goal in the first half63.8%

Two or more in the first half28.7%

Half-time then full-time

Arouca lead at half-time then Arouca win31.0%

Level at half-time then draw19.3%

Level at half-time then Arouca win18.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Arouca's side

Arouca −2.018.3%

Arouca −1.7522.3%

Arouca −1.526.3%

Arouca −1.2532.4%

Arouca −1.038.5%

Arouca −0.7544.6%

Arouca −0.550.8%

Arouca −0.2558.0%

Arouca draw no bet (0.0)65.2%

Arouca +0.2572.4%

Arouca +0.579.6%

Arouca +0.7583.0%

Arouca +1.086.4%

Arouca +1.593.1%

Arouca +2.095.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Arouca win1.97

Draw3.47

Moreirense win4.89

Over 2.52.46

Under 2.51.69

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Arouca wins by more than 1 goals26%

Moreirense wins by more than 1 goals7%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/08 (GMT+7)

Espanyol vs Levante00:00 · La Liga3–0

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.