Match summary
Arsenal vs Dortmund (Elite Friendlies), 09/08/2026 has been played; a verified score is not on record yet. Before the match Jarvis gave Arsenal 60%, the draw 21% and Dortmund 18%.
Outcome probability
Jarvis prediction from BEFORE kickoff. The match has finished but we have not verified the score yet, so there is no comparison below.
Result not verified
Arsenal
60%
Draw
21%
Dortmund
18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal, negative favours Dortmund) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Arsenal - Dortmund)+1.02
Expected total goals3.19
Expected goals Arsenal / Dortmund2.11 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.5% / 41.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.2%
Over 2.5 goals 61.8%
Over 3.5 goals 39.6%
First half
First-half result (Arsenal / draw / Dortmund)45.0% / 37.1% / 17.9%
A goal in the first half75.7%
Two or more in the first half42.5%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win39.3%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Arsenal's side
Arsenal −2.028.5%
Arsenal −1.7533.1%
Arsenal −1.537.7%
Arsenal −1.2543.4%
Arsenal −1.049.1%
Arsenal −0.7554.7%
Arsenal −0.560.4%
Arsenal −0.2565.7%
Arsenal draw no bet (0.0)71.1%
Arsenal +0.2576.4%
Arsenal +0.581.7%
Arsenal +0.7584.6%
Arsenal +1.087.4%
Arsenal +1.593.2%
Arsenal +2.095.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Arsenal win1.65
Draw4.71
Dortmund win5.46
Over 2.51.62
Under 2.52.62
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals38%
Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals7%
Probability trajectory · full match
Next fixtures of both teams
- vs Nottingham Forest (away)Sun 18/10, 22:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 62% / 25% / 14%
- vs Bayern Munich (away)Thu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
- vs Sabah FK (away)Tue 20/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
- vs Eintracht FrankfurtSat 24/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27