FIFA World Cup
Belgium vs Senegal prediction
Belgium
3 – 2
Full-time
Senegal
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Belgium
43%
Draw
31%
Senegal
25%
Actual result: Belgium 3 – 2 Senegal · Belgium winJarvis gave this outcome: 43% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Belgium, negative favours Senegal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Belgium - Senegal)+0.37
Expected total goals2.26
Expected goals Belgium / Senegal1.31 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.4% / 53.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.6%
Over 2.5 goals 39.3%
Over 3.5 goals 19.2%
First half
First-half result (Belgium / draw / Senegal)31.4% / 48.3% / 20.3%
A goal in the first half62.6%
Two or more in the first half28.2%
Half-time then full-time
Belgium ahead then Belgium win26.0%
level then draw21.1%
level then Belgium win16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Belgium
Belgium give 2 trái (−2.0)14.2%
Belgium give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)17.5%
Belgium give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)20.9%
Belgium give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)26.5%
Belgium give 1 trái (−1.0)32.1%
Belgium give 3/4 trái (−0.75)37.8%
Belgium give nửa trái (−0.5)43.4%
Belgium give 1/4 trái (−0.25)51.3%
Level ball (0.0)59.1%
Belgium receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)67.0%
Belgium receive nửa trái (+0.5)74.9%
Belgium receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)78.8%
Belgium receive 1 trái (+1.0)82.7%
Belgium receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)90.6%
Belgium receive 2 trái (+2.0)94.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Belgium win2.30
Draw3.18
Senegal win3.98
Over 2.52.55
Under 2.51.65
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
14.7%
0–0
12.2%
1–0
12.0%
2–0
9.0%
2–1
8.5%
0–1
8.2%
Goal margin
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals21%
Senegal wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%