FIFA World Cup
England vs DR Congo prediction
England
2 – 1
Full-time
DR Congo
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
England
77%
Draw
17%
DR Congo
6%
Actual result: England 2 – 1 DR Congo · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours England, negative favours DR Congo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (England - DR Congo)+1.69
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals England / DR Congo2.11 / 0.42
Both teams to score (yes / no)30.3% / 69.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.1%
Over 2.5 goals 46.4%
Over 3.5 goals 24.9%
First half
First-half result (England / draw / DR Congo)54.5% / 38.5% / 7.0%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
England ahead then England win52.1%
level then England win23.3%
level then draw12.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from England
England give 2 trái (−2.0)40.0%
England give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)45.9%
England give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)51.8%
England give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)58.1%
England give 1 trái (−1.0)64.4%
England give 3/4 trái (−0.75)70.6%
England give nửa trái (−0.5)76.9%
England give 1/4 trái (−0.25)81.2%
Level ball (0.0)85.6%
England receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)89.9%
England receive nửa trái (+0.5)94.2%
England receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)95.4%
England receive 1 trái (+1.0)96.6%
England receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)98.9%
England receive 2 trái (+2.0)99.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
England win1.30
Draw5.80
DR Congo win17.17
Over 2.52.16
Under 2.51.86
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
17.8%
1–0
16.6%
3–0
12.5%
0–0
8.2%
2–1
7.4%
1–1
7.3%
Goal margin
England wins by more than 1 goals52%
DR Congo wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners8.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match54%