FIFA World Cup

Mexico vs Ecuador prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Mexico vs Ecuador (World Cup), 01/07/2026, finished 2-0: Mexico won. Before the match Jarvis gave Mexico 42%, the draw 36% and Ecuador 23%; the actual result had a 42% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 1.9.

Result & analysis

Mexicovs

EcuadorSee result & how it compares →Read the pre-match prediction →

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Mexico

42%

Draw

36%

Ecuador

23%

Actual result: Mexico 2 – 0 Ecuador · Mexico winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mexico, negative favours Ecuador) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Mexico - Ecuador)+0.36

Expected total goals1.94

Expected goals Mexico / Ecuador1.15 / 0.79

Both teams to score (yes / no)39.8% / 60.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 60.3%

Over 2.5 goals 30.8%

Over 3.5 goals 13.3%

First half

First-half result (Mexico / draw / Ecuador)29.4% / 52.6% / 17.9%

A goal in the first half56.9%

Two or more in the first half23.3%

Half-time then full-time

Level at half-time then draw25.3%

Mexico lead at half-time then Mexico win24.8%

Level at half-time then Mexico win17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Mexico's side

Mexico −2.012.6%

Mexico −1.7515.8%

Mexico −1.519.0%

Mexico −1.2524.7%

Mexico −1.030.4%

Mexico −0.7536.1%

Mexico −0.541.8%

Mexico −0.2550.7%

Mexico draw no bet (0.0)59.6%

Mexico +0.2568.5%

Mexico +0.577.4%

Mexico +0.7581.1%

Mexico +1.084.8%

Mexico +1.592.2%

Mexico +2.095.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Mexico win2.39

Draw2.81

Ecuador win4.42

Over 2.53.24

Under 2.51.45

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Most likely scorelines

0–0

16.8%

1–1

15.5%

1–0

14.1%

2–0

9.5%

0–1

8.9%

2–1

7.5%

Goal margin

Mexico wins by more than 1 goals19%

Ecuador wins by more than 1 goals8%

Corners

Expected total corners12.3

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards3.3

2.5+ cards in the match41%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 01/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.