UEFA Europa League Qualifiers

Besiktas vs Midtjylland prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Besiktas vs Midtjylland (Europa League), 24/07/2026, finished 1-0: Besiktas won. Before the match Jarvis gave Besiktas 41%, the draw 27% and Midtjylland 32%; the actual result had a 41% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Next for Besiktas: Crystal Palace (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Besiktas

41%

Draw

27%

Midtjylland

32%

Actual result: Besiktas 1 – 0 Midtjylland · Besiktas winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Besiktas, negative favours Midtjylland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Besiktas - Midtjylland)+0.21

Expected total goals2.82

Expected goals Besiktas / Midtjylland1.51 / 1.30

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.9% / 42.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.3%

Over 2.5 goals 53.5%

Over 3.5 goals 31.2%

First half

First-half result (Besiktas / draw / Midtjylland)31.6% / 42.6% / 25.7%

A goal in the first half70.8%

Two or more in the first half37.2%

Half-time then full-time

Besiktas lead at half-time then Besiktas win24.9%

Midtjylland lead at half-time then Midtjylland win18.5%

Level at half-time then draw16.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Besiktas's side

Besiktas −2.014.5%

Besiktas −1.7517.6%

Besiktas −1.520.8%

Besiktas −1.2525.9%

Besiktas −1.031.0%

Besiktas −0.7536.1%

Besiktas −0.541.2%

Besiktas −0.2548.0%

Besiktas draw no bet (0.0)54.8%

Besiktas +0.2561.6%

Besiktas +0.568.4%

Besiktas +0.7572.7%

Besiktas +1.077.0%

Besiktas +1.585.7%

Besiktas +2.090.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Besiktas win2.43

Draw3.68

Midtjylland win3.16

Over 2.51.87

Under 2.52.15

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Besiktas wins by more than 1 goals21%

Midtjylland wins by more than 1 goals14%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Besiktas

vs Crystal PalaceFri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Celtic (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 24/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Europa League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Besiktas	2	+4	6
5	AFC Bournemouth	2	+4	6

See the full Europa League table