Match summary
Bosnia vs Qatar (World Cup), 25/06/2026, finished 3-1: Bosnia won.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bosnia
69%
Draw
19%
Qatar
13%
Actual result: Bosnia 3 – 1 Qatar · Bosnia winJarvis gave this outcome: 69% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bosnia, negative favours Qatar) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bosnia - Qatar)+1.25
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Bosnia / Qatar1.88 / 0.62
Both teams to score (yes / no)38.1% / 61.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Bosnia / draw / Qatar)48.6% / 38.7% / 12.7%
A goal in the first half68.5%
Two or more in the first half30.1%
Half-time then full-time
Bosnia lead at half-time then Bosnia win44.2%
Level at half-time then Bosnia win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bosnia's side
Bosnia −2.030.6%
Bosnia −1.7535.8%
Bosnia −1.541.1%
Bosnia −1.2548.0%
Bosnia −1.054.9%
Bosnia −0.7561.7%
Bosnia −0.568.6%
Bosnia −0.2573.3%
Bosnia draw no bet (0.0)77.9%
Bosnia +0.2582.6%
Bosnia +0.587.3%
Bosnia +0.7589.7%
Bosnia +1.092.2%
Bosnia +1.597.2%
Bosnia +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bosnia win1.46
Draw5.37
Qatar win7.85
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
16.6%
2–0
14.5%
3–0
9.1%
2–1
9.0%
1–1
8.4%
0–0
7.0%
Goal margin
Bosnia wins by more than 1 goals41%
Qatar wins by more than 1 goals3%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 25/06 (GMT+7)
- Switzerland vs Canada02:00 · World Cup2–1
- Scotland vs Brazil05:00 · World Cup0–3
- Morocco vs Haiti05:00 · World Cup4–2
- South Africa vs South Korea08:00 · World Cup1–0
- Czech Republic vs Mexico08:00 · World Cup0–3
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.