Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Morocco
83%
Draw
12%
Haiti
5%
Actual result: Morocco 4 – 2 Haiti · Morocco winJarvis gave this outcome: 83% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Morocco, negative favours Haiti) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Morocco - Haiti)+1.93
Expected total goals2.62
Expected goals Morocco / Haiti2.27 / 0.35
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.2% / 74.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 goals 48.7%
Over 3.5 goals 26.9%
First half
First-half result (Morocco / draw / Haiti)59.5% / 33.9% / 6.6%
A goal in the first half70.3%
Two or more in the first half32.0%
Half-time then full-time
Morocco lead at half-time then Morocco win57.1%
Level at half-time then Morocco win22.3%
Level at half-time then draw9.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Morocco's side
Morocco −2.045.3%
Morocco −1.7551.4%
Morocco −1.557.4%
Morocco −1.2563.7%
Morocco −1.070.0%
Morocco −0.7576.3%
Morocco −0.582.6%
Morocco −0.2585.6%
Morocco draw no bet (0.0)88.6%
Morocco +0.2591.5%
Morocco +0.594.5%
Morocco +0.7595.7%
Morocco +1.097.0%
Morocco +1.599.4%
Morocco +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Morocco win1.21
Draw8.36
Haiti win18.31
Over 2.52.05
Under 2.51.95
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
18.8%
1–0
17.7%
3–0
14.2%
4–0
8.1%
2–1
6.5%
0–0
6.1%
Goal margin
Morocco wins by more than 1 goals57%
Haiti wins by more than 1 goals1%