Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Colombia
68%
Ghana
9%
Actual result: Colombia 1 – 0 Ghana · Colombia winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Colombia, negative favours Ghana) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Colombia - Ghana)+1.29
Expected total goals2.36
Expected goals Colombia / Ghana1.83 / 0.53
Both teams to score (yes / no)35.2% / 64.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.8%
Over 2.5 goals 41.9%
Over 3.5 goals 21.2%
First half
First-half result (Colombia / draw / Ghana)47.5% / 42.7% / 9.8%
A goal in the first half64.9%
Two or more in the first half29.1%
Half-time then full-time
Colombia lead at half-time then Colombia win44.2%
Level at half-time then Colombia win22.6%
Level at half-time then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Colombia's side
Colombia −2.030.9%
Colombia −1.7536.3%
Colombia −1.541.7%
Colombia −1.2548.3%
Colombia −1.054.9%
Colombia −0.7561.5%
Colombia −0.568.2%
Colombia −0.2573.8%
Colombia draw no bet (0.0)79.4%
Colombia +0.2585.0%
Colombia +0.590.6%
Colombia +0.7592.4%
Colombia +1.094.2%
Colombia +1.597.8%
Colombia +2.098.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Colombia win1.47
Draw4.46
Ghana win10.61
Over 2.52.39
Under 2.51.72
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Colombia wins by more than 1 goals42%
Ghana wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards2.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%
