FIFA World Cup
Paraguay vs France prediction
Paraguay
0 – 1
Full-time
France
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Paraguay
4%
Draw
12%
France
83%
Actual result: Paraguay 0 – 1 France · France winJarvis gave this outcome: 83% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Paraguay, negative favours France) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Paraguay - France)-2.04
Expected total goals2.79
Expected goals Paraguay / France0.38 / 2.42
Both teams to score (yes / no)28.2% / 71.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.5%
Over 2.5 goals 52.9%
Over 3.5 goals 30.7%
First half
First-half result (Paraguay / draw / France)6.0% / 33.3% / 60.7%
A goal in the first half71.9%
Two or more in the first half35.5%
Half-time then full-time
France ahead then France win58.5%
level then France win22.3%
level then draw9.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Paraguay
Paraguay give 2 trái (−2.0)0.4%
Paraguay give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)0.5%
Paraguay give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)0.7%
Paraguay give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)1.6%
Paraguay give 1 trái (−1.0)2.6%
Paraguay give 3/4 trái (−0.75)3.5%
Paraguay give nửa trái (−0.5)4.5%
Paraguay give 1/4 trái (−0.25)7.6%
Level ball (0.0)10.7%
Paraguay receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)13.8%
Paraguay receive nửa trái (+0.5)16.9%
Paraguay receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)22.6%
Paraguay receive 1 trái (+1.0)28.4%
Paraguay receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)39.8%
Paraguay receive 2 trái (+2.0)51.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Paraguay win22.28
Draw8.06
France win1.20
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.12
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–2
17.9%
0–1
15.1%
0–3
14.4%
0–4
8.7%
1–2
6.7%
0–0
5.8%
Goal margin
Paraguay wins by more than 1 goals1%
France wins by more than 1 goals60%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match40%