German Bundesliga

Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

Dortmund

01:30, 10/10

Kicking off soon

Werder Bremen

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Dortmund

74%

Draw

16%

Werder Bremen

10%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Dortmund, negative favours Werder Bremen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Dortmund - Werder Bremen)+1.71

Expected total goals3.47

Expected goals Dortmund / Werder Bremen2.59 / 0.88

Both teams to score (yes / no)54.6% / 45.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 86.5%

Over 2.5 goals 67.3%

Over 3.5 goals 45.7%

First half

First-half result (Dortmund / draw / Werder Bremen)54.9% / 33.0% / 12.0%

A goal in the first half78.4%

Two or more in the first half46.8%

Half-time then full-time

Dortmund ahead then Dortmund win50.9%

level then Dortmund win19.8%

level then draw9.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Quoted from Dortmund

Dortmund give 2 trái (−2.0)42.0%

Dortmund give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)47.3%

Dortmund give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)52.5%

Dortmund give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)57.8%

Dortmund give 1 trái (−1.0)63.1%

Dortmund give 3/4 trái (−0.75)68.3%

Dortmund give nửa trái (−0.5)73.6%

Dortmund give 1/4 trái (−0.25)77.7%

Level ball (0.0)81.7%

Dortmund receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)85.8%

Dortmund receive nửa trái (+0.5)89.9%

Dortmund receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)91.6%

Dortmund receive 1 trái (+1.0)93.4%

Dortmund receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)96.8%

Dortmund receive 2 trái (+2.0)98.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Dortmund win1.36

Draw6.13

Werder Bremen win9.91

Over 2.51.49

Under 2.53.06

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals52%

Werder Bremen wins by more than 1 goals3%

Corners

Expected total corners9.8

6.5+ corners in the match51%

Cards

Expected total cards2.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory