French Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon prediction

Lens

01:45, 10/10

Kicking off soon

Lyon

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Lens

40%

Draw

27%

Lyon

33%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lens, negative favours Lyon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lens - Lyon)+0.16

Expected total goals2.98

Expected goals Lens / Lyon1.57 / 1.41

Both teams to score (yes / no)61.4% / 38.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.3%

Over 2.5 goals 57.2%

Over 3.5 goals 34.8%

First half

First-half result (Lens / draw / Lyon)30.9% / 42.6% / 26.5%

A goal in the first half72.2%

Two or more in the first half40.4%

Half-time then full-time

Lens ahead then Lens win24.2%

Lyon ahead then Lyon win19.4%

level then draw16.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Quoted from Lens

Lens give 2 trái (−2.0)14.5%

Lens give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)17.6%

Lens give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)20.7%

Lens give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)25.5%

Lens give 1 trái (−1.0)30.2%

Lens give 3/4 trái (−0.75)35.0%

Lens give nửa trái (−0.5)39.8%

Lens give 1/4 trái (−0.25)46.7%

Level ball (0.0)53.6%

Lens receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)60.4%

Lens receive nửa trái (+0.5)67.3%

Lens receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)71.6%

Lens receive 1 trái (+1.0)75.8%

Lens receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)84.3%

Lens receive 2 trái (+2.0)89.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lens win2.51

Draw3.64

Lyon win3.06

Over 2.51.75

Under 2.52.33

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lens wins by more than 1 goals21%

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals16%

Corners

Expected total corners10.3

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards2.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory