UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Egnatia Rrogozhine vs NK Celje prediction

3 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

Egnatia Rrogozhine vs NK Celje (Champions League), 23/07/2026, finished 3-3: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Egnatia Rrogozhine 24%, the draw 29% and NK Celje 47%; the actual result had a 29% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 6 goals; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Next for NK Celje: RB Salzburg (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Egnatia Rrogozhine

24%

Draw

29%

NK Celje

47%

Actual result: Egnatia Rrogozhine 3 – 3 NK Celje · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 29%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Egnatia Rrogozhine, negative favours NK Celje) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Egnatia Rrogozhine - NK Celje)-0.48

Expected total goals2.46

Expected goals Egnatia Rrogozhine / NK Celje0.99 / 1.47

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.4% / 50.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.5%

Over 2.5 goals 44.5%

Over 3.5 goals 23.3%

First half

First-half result (Egnatia Rrogozhine / draw / NK Celje)20.3% / 45.3% / 34.4%

A goal in the first half66.0%

Two or more in the first half31.2%

Half-time then full-time

NK Celje lead at half-time then NK Celje win28.7%

Level at half-time then draw18.4%

Level at half-time then NK Celje win17.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Egnatia Rrogozhine's side

Egnatia Rrogozhine −2.05.8%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −1.757.5%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −1.59.1%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −1.2512.9%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −1.016.7%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −0.7520.5%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −0.524.3%

Egnatia Rrogozhine −0.2531.4%

Egnatia Rrogozhine draw no bet (0.0)38.6%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +0.2545.7%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +0.552.8%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +0.7558.6%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +1.064.4%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +1.576.0%

Egnatia Rrogozhine +2.083.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Egnatia Rrogozhine win4.11

Draw3.51

NK Celje win2.12

Over 2.52.25

Under 2.51.80

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Egnatia Rrogozhine wins by more than 1 goals9%

NK Celje wins by more than 1 goals24%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

NK Celje

vs RB SalzburgFri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs SK Sturm Graz (away)Fri 06/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 23/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.