UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Omonia vs Kairat Almaty prediction

1 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Omonia vs Kairat Almaty (Champions League), 23/07/2026, finished 1-0: Omonia won. Before the match Jarvis gave Omonia 58%, the draw 26% and Kairat Almaty 16%; the actual result had a 58% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Next for Omonia: Benfica (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Omonia

58%

Draw

26%

Kairat Almaty

16%

Actual result: Omonia 1 – 0 Kairat Almaty · Omonia winJarvis gave this outcome: 58% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Omonia, negative favours Kairat Almaty) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Omonia - Kairat Almaty)+0.89

Expected total goals2.45

Expected goals Omonia / Kairat Almaty1.67 / 0.78

Both teams to score (yes / no)45.0% / 55.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 71.2%

Over 2.5 goals 44.4%

Over 3.5 goals 23.3%

First half

First-half result (Omonia / draw / Kairat Almaty)41.0% / 43.9% / 15.2%

A goal in the first half66.2%

Two or more in the first half30.9%

Half-time then full-time

Omonia lead at half-time then Omonia win36.2%

Level at half-time then Omonia win19.9%

Level at half-time then draw17.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Omonia's side

Omonia −2.023.4%

Omonia −1.7527.9%

Omonia −1.532.5%

Omonia −1.2538.8%

Omonia −1.045.1%

Omonia −0.7551.4%

Omonia −0.557.7%

Omonia −0.2564.1%

Omonia draw no bet (0.0)70.6%

Omonia +0.2577.0%

Omonia +0.583.5%

Omonia +0.7586.3%

Omonia +1.089.2%

Omonia +1.594.9%

Omonia +2.096.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Omonia win1.73

Draw3.87

Kairat Almaty win6.06

Over 2.52.25

Under 2.51.80

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Omonia wins by more than 1 goals32%

Kairat Almaty wins by more than 1 goals5%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Omonia

vs BenficaFri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs NEC Nijmegen (away)Fri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 23/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.