Match summary
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln (Bundesliga), 17/10/2026, finished 1-0: Eintracht Frankfurt won. Before the match Jarvis gave Eintracht Frankfurt 53%, the draw 23% and FC Koln 24%; the actual result had a 53% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 3.7.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Eintracht Frankfurt
53%
Draw
23%
FC Koln
24%
Actual result: Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 0 FC Koln · Eintracht Frankfurt winJarvis gave this outcome: 53% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Eintracht Frankfurt, negative favours FC Koln) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Eintracht Frankfurt - FC Koln)+0.72
Expected total goals3.74
Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt / FC Koln2.23 / 1.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)70.8% / 29.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.1%
Over 2.5 goals 72.1%
Over 3.5 goals 51.3%
First half
First-half result (Eintracht Frankfurt / draw / FC Koln)40.2% / 37.9% / 22.0%
A goal in the first half79.3%
Two or more in the first half52.2%
Half-time then full-time
Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time then Eintracht Frankfurt win33.8%
Level at half-time then Eintracht Frankfurt win16.4%
FC Koln lead at half-time then FC Koln win14.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Eintracht Frankfurt's side
Eintracht Frankfurt −2.025.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt −1.7529.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt −1.533.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt −1.2538.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt −1.042.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt −0.7547.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt −0.552.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt −0.2558.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt draw no bet (0.0)64.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.2569.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.575.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt +0.7578.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt +1.082.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt +1.588.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt +2.092.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Eintracht Frankfurt win1.90
Draw4.36
FC Koln win4.10
Over 2.51.39
Under 2.53.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by more than 1 goals33%
FC Koln wins by more than 1 goals12%
Corners
Expected total corners10.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match43%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match events
- 24′Yellow cardMario Gotze
- 39′Yellow cardLilian Brassier
- 45′Yellow cardIsak Bergmann Johannesson
- 68′SubstitutionPaul Okon-Engstler on, Isak Bergmann Johannesson off
- 68′SubstitutionMikey Moore on, Linton Maina off
- 68′SubstitutionAlessio Castro-Montes on, Joel Schmied off
- 71′SubstitutionNoel Aseko on, Mario Gotze off
- 71′SubstitutionAnsgar Knauff on, Nnamdi Collins off
- 77′GoalYounes Ebnoutalib (assist: Noel Aseko)
- 82′SubstitutionElias Niklas Baum on, Jonathan Burkardt off
- 84′SubstitutionReigan Heskey on, Said El Mala off
- 84′SubstitutionLuca Waldschmidt on, Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen off
- 90+4′Yellow cardBorna Sosa
Match statistics
Eintracht FrankfurtFC Koln
56Possession44
1.38Expected goals (xG)0.67
15Total shots9
7Shots on target3
7Corners3
8Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
3Saves6
79Pass accuracy (%)74
Player ratings
| 8.0 | R. Koch · Eintracht Frankfurt | |
| 7.9 | L. Brassier · Eintracht Frankfurt | |
| 7.7 | M. Schwabe · FC Koln | |
| 7.6 | Y. Ebnoutalib · Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 goal |
| 7.5 | B. Sosa · FC Koln | |
| 7.3 | N. Atubolu · Eintracht Frankfurt |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln lineups
Eintracht FrankfurtFormation 4-4-2Coach: A. Hutter
| 1 | N. Atubolu | GK |
| 34 | N. Collins | DF |
| 4 | R. Koch | DF |
| 3 | L. Brassier | DF |
| 26 | K. Kosugi | DF |
| 20 | R. Doan | MF |
| 25 | R. Onyedika | MF |
| 27 | M. Gotze | MF |
| 8 | F. Chaibi | MF |
| 9 | J. Burkardt | FW |
| 11 | Y. Ebnoutalib | FW |
| 31 | L. Arrhov | MF |
| 15 | N. Aseko Nkili | MF |
| 2 | Elias Baum | DF |
| 29 | A. Amaimouni | FW |
| 22 | T. Chandler | DF |
| 40 | Kaua Santos | GK |
| 7 | A. Knauff | FW |
| 37 | J. Maluze | DF |
| 42 | C. Uzun | MF |
FC KolnFormation 5-3-2Coach: Rene Wagner
| 1 | M. Schwabe | GK |
| 28 | S. Sebulonsen | DF |
| 2 | J. Schmied | DF |
| 22 | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | DF |
| 24 | L. Lochoshvili | DF |
| 3 | B. Sosa | DF |
| 8 | I. Bergmann Johannesson | MF |
| 5 | T. Krauss | MF |
| 37 | L. Maina | MF |
| 30 | M. Bulter | FW |
| 10 | S. El Mala | FW |
| 17 | A. Castro-Montes | MF |
| 11 | Reigan Heskey | FW |
| 14 | G. Mensah | DF |
| 47 | M. Moore | FW |
| 23 | Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler | MF |
| 29 | J. Thielmann | MF |
| 7 | L. Waldschmidt | FW |
| 20 | R. Zieler | GK |
| 46 | A. Kotya-Fofana | DF |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln injury report and team news
Eintracht Frankfurt- J. NgankamOut · Hamstring Injury
- J. MaluzeDoubtful · Illness
- M. PimpongDoubtful · Injury
FC Koln- R. AcheOut · Thigh Injury
- T. DallingaOut · Knee Injury
- T. HubersOut · Knee Injury
- E. SkhiriOut · Injury
- R. van den BergOut · Muscle Injury
- A. Castro-MontesDoubtful · Muscle Injury
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln team form
Eintracht FrankfurtLWDWL| 10/10/2026 | RB Leipzig (away) | 0–6 |
| 02/10/2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig (home) | 4–0 |
| 19/09/2026 | SC Freiburg (home) | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | FSV Mainz 05 (away) | 3–1 |
| 06/09/2026 | FC Augsburg (home) | 1–4 |
FC KolnWDLDL| 11/10/2026 | Borussia Monchengladbach (home) | 2–1 |
| 03/10/2026 | FC Viktoria Koln (away) | 2–2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Hamburger SV (away) | 1–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Werder Bremen (home) | 1–1 |
| 04/09/2026 | VfB Stuttgart (away) | 1–4 |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt won 2, drew 5, lost 3. Eintracht Frankfurt scored 12 and conceded 15 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | 1. FC Koln |
| 22/11/2025 | 1. FC Koln | 3–4 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 03/02/2024 | 1. FC Koln | 2–0 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 03/09/2023 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–1 | 1. FC Koln |
| 12/02/2023 | 1. FC Koln | 3–0 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 21/08/2022 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–1 | 1. FC Koln |
| 19/02/2022 | 1. FC Koln | 1–0 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 25/09/2021 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–1 | 1. FC Koln |
| 14/02/2021 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–0 | 1. FC Koln |
| 18/10/2020 | 1. FC Koln | 1–1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
Match information
- Referee
- Benjamin Brand
- Venue
- Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
- Round
- 6
Next fixtures of both teams
- vs Borussia Dortmund (away)Sat 24/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
- vs Hamburg SVSun 01/11, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo01:45 · Serie A4–2
- Le Mans vs Toulouse01:45 · Ligue 10–3
- Deportivo vs Levante02:00 · La Liga1–1
- Everton vs Chelsea18:30 · Premier League30% / 27% / 43%
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid19:00 · La Liga19% / 25% / 57%
- Venezia vs Napoli20:00 · Serie A20% / 25% / 55%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.
Bundesliga table, latest
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | +12 | 11 |
| ... | ||||
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Mainz | 5 | +3 | 7 |