Match summary
Le Mans vs Toulouse (Ligue 1), 17/10/2026, finished 0-3: Toulouse won. Before the match Jarvis gave Le Mans 30%, the draw 28% and Toulouse 42%; the actual result had a 42% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Le Mans
30%
Draw
28%
Toulouse
42%
Actual result: Le Mans 0 – 3 Toulouse · Toulouse winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Le Mans, negative favours Toulouse) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Le Mans - Toulouse)-0.28
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Le Mans / Toulouse1.35 / 1.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.4% / 38.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.6%
Over 2.5 goals 57.2%
Over 3.5 goals 34.8%
First half
First-half result (Le Mans / draw / Toulouse)24.7% / 43.1% / 32.3%
A goal in the first half71.9%
Two or more in the first half40.7%
Half-time then full-time
Toulouse lead at half-time then Toulouse win25.8%
Le Mans lead at half-time then Le Mans win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Le Mans's side
Le Mans −2.09.5%
Le Mans −1.7511.8%
Le Mans −1.514.1%
Le Mans −1.2518.0%
Le Mans −1.022.0%
Le Mans −0.7526.0%
Le Mans −0.530.0%
Le Mans −0.2536.9%
Le Mans draw no bet (0.0)43.9%
Le Mans +0.2550.9%
Le Mans +0.557.8%
Le Mans +0.7562.7%
Le Mans +1.067.6%
Le Mans +1.577.4%
Le Mans +2.084.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Le Mans win3.34
Draw3.59
Toulouse win2.37
Over 2.51.75
Under 2.52.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Le Mans wins by more than 1 goals14%
Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals23%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match54%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match events
- 46′GoalJacen Russell-Rowe (assist: Aron Donnum)
- 49′Yellow cardJacen Russell-Rowe
- 59′GoalAron Donnum
- 61′SubstitutionLucas Calodat on, Yasser Larouci off
- 61′SubstitutionHabib Diallo on, Dame Gueye off
- 61′SubstitutionBilal Brahimi on, Daouda Traore off
- 64′SubstitutionAlexis Vossah on, Aron Donnum off
- 69′SubstitutionRayan Bamba on, Lucas Buades off
- 76′SubstitutionJulian Vignolo on, Jacen Russell-Rowe off
- 77′SubstitutionNoa Boisse on, Harold Voyer off
- 85′SubstitutionSeny Koumbassa on, Rasmus Nicolaisen off
- 87′GoalCasper Tengstedt (assist: Cristian Casseres)
- 90′Yellow cardSamuel Yohou
- 90+4′Yellow cardDjibril Sidibe
Match statistics
Le MansToulouse
53Possession47
0.93Expected goals (xG)1.83
11Total shots13
1Shots on target5
2Corners2
15Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Offsides3
2Saves1
87Pass accuracy (%)86
Player ratings
| 8.9 | A. Donnum · Toulouse | 1 goal 1 assist |
| 8.0 | C. Tengstedt · Toulouse | 1 goal |
| 7.7 | J. Russell-Rowe · Toulouse | 1 goal |
| 7.7 | C. Casseres · Toulouse | 1 assist |
| 7.1 | R. Messali · Toulouse | |
| 7.1 | M. McKenzie · Toulouse |
Le Mans vs Toulouse lineups
Le MansFormation 3-1-4-2Coach: P. Videira
| 98 | N. Kocik | GK |
| 19 | D. Sidibe | DF |
| 17 | S. Yohou | DF |
| 5 | H. Voyer | DF |
| 29 | L. Bretelle | MF |
| 18 | L. Buades | MF |
| 23 | D. Traore | MF |
| 10 | J. Vercruysse | MF |
| 76 | Y. Larouci | MF |
| 25 | D. Gueye | FW |
| 14 | L. Mafouta | FW |
| 15 | N. Boisse | DF |
| 26 | R. Bamba | DF |
| 7 | B. Brahimi | FW |
| 22 | L. Calodat | DF |
| 13 | H. Diallo | FW |
| 20 | W. Harhouz | FW |
| 1 | E. Hatfout | GK |
| 8 | A. Lauray | MF |
| 9 | A. Rabillard | FW |
ToulouseFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: Jens Berthel Askou
| 16 | G. Restes | GK |
| 22 | R. Messali | DF |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | DF |
| 2 | R. Nicolaisen | DF |
| 12 | C. Tape | DF |
| 23 | C. Casseres | MF |
| 14 | N. Sigur | MF |
| 15 | A. Donnum | MF |
| 20 | C. Tengstedt | MF |
| 8 | T. Jorgensen | MF |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | FW |
| 6 | A. Vossah | MF |
| 18 | M. Amougou | MF |
| 1 | T. Collin | GK |
| 94 | I. Diallo | DF |
| 9 | S. Hidalgo | FW |
| 5 | S. Koumbassa | DF |
| 19 | D. Odogu | DF |
| 31 | N. Schmidt | MF |
| 7 | Julian Vignolo | FW |
Le Mans vs Toulouse injury report and team news
Le Mans- A. BourabaaOut · Ankle Injury
- E. ColasOut · Injury
- T. EyoumOut · Coach's decision
- E. QuarshieOut · Coach's decision
- M. RossignolOut · Injury
Le Mans vs Toulouse team form
Le MansLLWDD| 10/10/2026 | Paris Saint Germain (away) | 1–3 |
| 02/10/2026 | Guingamp (away) | 1–2 |
| 19/09/2026 | Lorient (home) | 2–1 |
| 13/09/2026 | Lens (home) | 2–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | Nice (away) | 1–1 |
ToulouseDLWDL| 10/10/2026 | Monaco (away) | 2–2 |
| 03/10/2026 | PAU (home) | 2–3 |
| 19/09/2026 | Le Havre (home) | 3–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Lorient (away) | 2–2 |
| 03/09/2026 | Lille (home) | 0–1 |
Match information
- Referee
- Aurelien Petit
- Venue
- MMArena, Le Mans
- Round
- 7
Next fixtures of both teams
Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Koln01:30 · Bundesliga1–0
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo01:45 · Serie A4–2
- Deportivo vs Levante02:00 · La Liga1–1
- Everton vs Chelsea18:30 · Premier League30% / 27% / 43%
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid19:00 · La Liga19% / 25% / 57%
- Venezia vs Napoli20:00 · Serie A20% / 25% / 55%
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.
Ligue 1 table, latest
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Monaco | 6 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Stade Rennais | 6 | +2 | 13 |
| ... | ||||
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Brest | 6 | +3 | 8 |
| ... | ||||
| 14 | Marseille | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | AJ Auxerre | 6 | -8 | 6 |