Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
England
56%
Draw
25%
Croatia
18%
Actual result: England 4 – 2 Croatia · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours England, negative favours Croatia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (England - Croatia)+0.82
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals England / Croatia1.66 / 0.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (England / draw / Croatia)40.3% / 43.0% / 16.6%
A goal in the first half67.2%
Two or more in the first half31.4%
Half-time then full-time
England lead at half-time then England win35.1%
Level at half-time then England win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from England's side
England −2.022.4%
England −1.7526.8%
England −1.531.2%
England −1.2537.5%
England −1.043.7%
England −0.7550.0%
England −0.556.3%
England −0.2562.6%
England draw no bet (0.0)68.9%
England +0.2575.2%
England +0.581.6%
England +0.7584.7%
England +1.087.8%
England +1.594.1%
England +2.096.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
England win1.78
Draw3.96
Croatia win5.42
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
13.2%
1–1
11.9%
2–0
11.3%
2–1
9.5%
0–0
8.7%
0–1
6.4%
Goal margin
England wins by more than 1 goals31%
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals6%