Dutch Eredivisie

Excelsior vs PSV prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Excelsior vs PSV (Dutch Eredivisie), 16/08/2026, finished 1-2: PSV won. Before the match Jarvis gave Excelsior 14%, the draw 19% and PSV 67%; the actual result had a 67% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.7.

Next for PSV: FC Porto (Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Excelsior

14%

Draw

19%

PSV

67%

Actual result: Excelsior 1 – 2 PSV · PSV winJarvis gave this outcome: 67% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Excelsior, negative favours PSV) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Excelsior - PSV)-1.44

Expected total goals3.66

Expected goals Excelsior / PSV1.11 / 2.55

Both teams to score (yes / no)62.9% / 37.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 89.0%

Over 2.5 goals 70.8%

Over 3.5 goals 49.8%

First half

First-half result (Excelsior / draw / PSV)14.6% / 35.0% / 50.4%

A goal in the first half79.2%

Two or more in the first half50.6%

Half-time then full-time

PSV lead at half-time then PSV win45.7%

Level at half-time then PSV win19.2%

Level at half-time then draw10.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Excelsior's side

Excelsior −2.03.4%

Excelsior −1.754.3%

Excelsior −1.55.2%

Excelsior −1.257.3%

Excelsior −1.09.4%

Excelsior −0.7511.5%

Excelsior −0.513.6%

Excelsior −0.2518.3%

Excelsior draw no bet (0.0)23.0%

Excelsior +0.2527.8%

Excelsior +0.532.5%

Excelsior +0.7537.6%

Excelsior +1.042.7%

Excelsior +1.552.9%

Excelsior +2.062.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Excelsior win7.38

Draw5.27

PSV win1.48

Over 2.51.41

Under 2.53.43

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Excelsior wins by more than 1 goals5%

PSV wins by more than 1 goals47%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

PSV

vs FC Porto (away)Wed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Club BruggeThu 05/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 16/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.