Spanish La Liga

Alaves vs Getafe prediction

3 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Alaves vs Getafe (La Liga), 16/08/2026, finished 3-0: Alaves won. Before the match Jarvis gave Alaves 39%, the draw 36% and Getafe 24%; the actual result had a 39% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 1.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Alaves

39%

Draw

36%

Getafe

24%

Actual result: Alaves 3 – 0 Getafe · Alaves winJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Alaves, negative favours Getafe) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Alaves - Getafe)+0.28

Expected total goals1.84

Expected goals Alaves / Getafe1.06 / 0.78

Both teams to score (yes / no)37.4% / 62.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 56.9%

Over 2.5 goals 27.9%

Over 3.5 goals 11.5%

First half

First-half result (Alaves / draw / Getafe)27.6% / 53.7% / 18.8%

A goal in the first half55.1%

Two or more in the first half21.2%

Half-time then full-time

Level at half-time then draw26.3%

Alaves lead at half-time then Alaves win23.0%

Level at half-time then Alaves win16.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Alaves's side

Alaves −2.010.8%

Alaves −1.7513.7%

Alaves −1.516.6%

Alaves −1.2522.3%

Alaves −1.028.0%

Alaves −0.7533.7%

Alaves −0.539.4%

Alaves −0.2548.4%

Alaves draw no bet (0.0)57.4%

Alaves +0.2566.5%

Alaves +0.575.5%

Alaves +0.7579.6%

Alaves +1.083.6%

Alaves +1.591.8%

Alaves +2.094.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Alaves win2.54

Draw2.77

Getafe win4.09

Over 2.53.58

Under 2.51.39

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Alaves wins by more than 1 goals17%

Getafe wins by more than 1 goals8%

Corners

Expected total corners9.4

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards4.7

2.5+ cards in the match51%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Alaves

vs Celta Vigo (away)Sun 18/10, 21:15 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 25% / 31% / 44%
vs MalagaSat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Getafe

vs Rayo VallecanoTue 20/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
vs Athletic Club (away)Sun 25/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 16/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	+5	19
...
6	Real Sociedad	8	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	+4	11
8	Deportivo	9	+1	11
...
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	-10	8

See the full La Liga table