Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Differdange 03
35%
Ilves
39%
Actual result: FC Differdange 03 0 – 0 Ilves · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Differdange 03, negative favours Ilves) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Differdange 03 - Ilves)-0.09
Expected total goals2.88
Expected goals FC Differdange 03 / Ilves1.39 / 1.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.1% / 40.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.2%
Over 2.5 goals 54.9%
Over 3.5 goals 32.5%
First half
First-half result (FC Differdange 03 / draw / Ilves)27.7% / 42.1% / 30.2%
A goal in the first half71.6%
Two or more in the first half38.1%
Half-time then full-time
Ilves lead at half-time then Ilves win23.2%
FC Differdange 03 lead at half-time then FC Differdange 03 win20.4%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Differdange 03's side
FC Differdange 03 −2.011.1%
FC Differdange 03 −1.7513.7%
FC Differdange 03 −1.516.3%
FC Differdange 03 −1.2520.8%
FC Differdange 03 −1.025.4%
FC Differdange 03 −0.7530.0%
FC Differdange 03 −0.534.5%
FC Differdange 03 −0.2541.2%
FC Differdange 03 draw no bet (0.0)48.0%
FC Differdange 03 +0.2554.7%
FC Differdange 03 +0.561.4%
FC Differdange 03 +0.7566.3%
FC Differdange 03 +1.071.1%
FC Differdange 03 +1.580.9%
FC Differdange 03 +2.086.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Differdange 03 win2.90
Draw3.73
Ilves win2.59
Over 2.51.82
Under 2.52.22
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
FC Differdange 03 wins by more than 1 goals16%
Ilves wins by more than 1 goals19%
