Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Kalmar FF
39%
Malmo FF
34%
Actual result: Kalmar FF 2 – 2 Malmo FF · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Kalmar FF, negative favours Malmo FF) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Kalmar FF - Malmo FF)+0.11
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Kalmar FF / Malmo FF1.47 / 1.36
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.5% / 41.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.6%
Over 2.5 goals 53.8%
Over 3.5 goals 31.5%
First half
First-half result (Kalmar FF / draw / Malmo FF)30.2% / 42.8% / 27.1%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half37.6%
Half-time then full-time
Kalmar FF lead at half-time then Kalmar FF win23.3%
Malmo FF lead at half-time then Malmo FF win20.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Kalmar FF's side
Kalmar FF −2.013.3%
Kalmar FF −1.7516.2%
Kalmar FF −1.519.2%
Kalmar FF −1.2524.1%
Kalmar FF −1.029.0%
Kalmar FF −0.7533.9%
Kalmar FF −0.538.8%
Kalmar FF −0.2545.6%
Kalmar FF draw no bet (0.0)52.5%
Kalmar FF +0.2559.3%
Kalmar FF +0.566.2%
Kalmar FF +0.7570.7%
Kalmar FF +1.075.2%
Kalmar FF +1.584.2%
Kalmar FF +2.089.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Kalmar FF win2.58
Draw3.65
Malmo FF win2.96
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.17
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Kalmar FF wins by more than 1 goals19%
Malmo FF wins by more than 1 goals16%
