Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Leeds
41%
Draw
28%
Newcastle
31%
Actual result: Leeds 4 – 1 Newcastle · Leeds winJarvis gave this outcome: 41% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Leeds, negative favours Newcastle) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Leeds - Newcastle)+0.22
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Leeds / Newcastle1.51 / 1.29
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.1% / 41.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.5%
Over 2.5 goals 53.0%
Over 3.5 goals 30.7%
First half
First-half result (Leeds / draw / Newcastle)31.1% / 43.9% / 25.0%
A goal in the first half70.0%
Two or more in the first half37.4%
Half-time then full-time
Leeds lead at half-time then Leeds win24.6%
Newcastle lead at half-time then Newcastle win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Leeds's side
Leeds −2.014.5%
Leeds −1.7517.6%
Leeds −1.520.8%
Leeds −1.2525.8%
Leeds −1.030.7%
Leeds −0.7535.7%
Leeds −0.540.7%
Leeds −0.2547.8%
Leeds draw no bet (0.0)54.9%
Leeds +0.2562.0%
Leeds +0.569.1%
Leeds +0.7573.3%
Leeds +1.077.5%
Leeds +1.585.9%
Leeds +2.090.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Leeds win2.46
Draw3.51
Newcastle win3.24
Over 2.51.89
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Leeds wins by more than 1 goals21%
Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners10.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%