Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Torino
15%
Draw
23%
Roma
62%
Actual result: Torino 0 – 2 Roma · Roma winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Torino, negative favours Roma) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Torino - Roma)-1.10
Expected total goals2.84
Expected goals Torino / Roma0.87 / 1.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.9% / 49.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.5%
Over 2.5 goals 54.0%
Over 3.5 goals 31.7%
First half
First-half result (Torino / draw / Roma)14.7% / 40.1% / 45.2%
A goal in the first half71.3%
Two or more in the first half37.4%
Half-time then full-time
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win40.4%
Level at half-time then Roma win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Torino's side
Torino −2.03.1%
Torino −1.754.0%
Torino −1.55.0%
Torino −1.257.4%
Torino −1.09.9%
Torino −0.7512.4%
Torino −0.514.9%
Torino −0.2520.6%
Torino draw no bet (0.0)26.3%
Torino +0.2532.0%
Torino +0.537.7%
Torino +0.7543.7%
Torino +1.049.6%
Torino +1.561.5%
Torino +2.071.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Torino win6.71
Draw4.38
Roma win1.61
Over 2.51.85
Under 2.52.18
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Torino wins by more than 1 goals5%
Roma wins by more than 1 goals39%
Corners
Expected total corners8.5
6.5+ corners in the match47%