Belgian Pro League

Lommel vs Charleroi prediction

0 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Lommel vs Charleroi (Belgian Pro League), 17/08/2026, finished 0-1: Charleroi won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lommel 22%, the draw 25% and Charleroi 53%; the actual result had a 53% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 1 goal; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lommel

22%

Draw

25%

Charleroi

53%

Actual result: Lommel 0 – 1 Charleroi · Charleroi winJarvis gave this outcome: 53% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lommel, negative favours Charleroi) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lommel - Charleroi)-0.69

Expected total goals2.89

Expected goals Lommel / Charleroi1.10 / 1.79

Both teams to score (yes / no)56.5% / 43.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.4%

Over 2.5 goals 55.2%

Over 3.5 goals 32.8%

First half

First-half result (Lommel / draw / Charleroi)19.8% / 41.2% / 39.0%

A goal in the first half71.8%

Two or more in the first half38.3%

Half-time then full-time

Charleroi lead at half-time then Charleroi win33.1%

Level at half-time then Charleroi win17.5%

Level at half-time then draw15.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lommel's side

Lommel −2.05.7%

Lommel −1.757.2%

Lommel −1.58.7%

Lommel −1.2512.1%

Lommel −1.015.5%

Lommel −0.7518.8%

Lommel −0.522.2%

Lommel −0.2528.5%

Lommel draw no bet (0.0)34.8%

Lommel +0.2541.1%

Lommel +0.547.4%

Lommel +0.7553.0%

Lommel +1.058.6%

Lommel +1.569.9%

Lommel +2.078.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lommel win4.51

Draw3.97

Charleroi win1.90

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.23

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lommel wins by more than 1 goals9%

Charleroi wins by more than 1 goals30%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/08 (GMT+7)

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The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.