Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mexico
48%
Draw
29%
South Korea
24%
Actual result: Mexico 1 – 0 South Korea · Mexico winJarvis gave this outcome: 48% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mexico, negative favours South Korea) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mexico - South Korea)+0.50
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Mexico / South Korea1.50 / 1.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.4% / 49.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.6%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Mexico / draw / South Korea)34.7% / 45.3% / 20.0%
A goal in the first half66.4%
Two or more in the first half32.1%
Half-time then full-time
Mexico lead at half-time then Mexico win29.1%
Level at half-time then draw18.4%
Level at half-time then Mexico win17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Mexico's side
Mexico −2.017.3%
Mexico −1.7521.0%
Mexico −1.524.7%
Mexico −1.2530.4%
Mexico −1.036.1%
Mexico −0.7541.8%
Mexico −0.547.5%
Mexico −0.2554.7%
Mexico draw no bet (0.0)61.9%
Mexico +0.2569.1%
Mexico +0.576.2%
Mexico +0.7579.9%
Mexico +1.083.6%
Mexico +1.590.9%
Mexico +2.094.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mexico win2.10
Draw3.48
South Korea win4.21
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
13.7%
1–0
11.0%
0–0
9.6%
2–0
9.3%
2–1
9.2%
0–1
6.8%
Goal margin
Mexico wins by more than 1 goals25%
South Korea wins by more than 1 goals9%