Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
United States
61%
Draw
22%
Australia
18%
Actual result: United States 2 – 0 Australia · United States winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours United States, negative favours Australia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (United States - Australia)+0.94
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals United States / Australia1.72 / 0.78
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.5% / 56.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.3%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (United States / draw / Australia)43.4% / 40.3% / 16.2%
A goal in the first half68.3%
Two or more in the first half30.2%
Half-time then full-time
United States lead at half-time then United States win38.0%
Level at half-time then United States win19.4%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from United States's side
United States −2.024.6%
United States −1.7529.2%
United States −1.533.9%
United States −1.2540.6%
United States −1.047.4%
United States −0.7554.1%
United States −0.560.8%
United States −0.2566.2%
United States draw no bet (0.0)71.6%
United States +0.2577.0%
United States +0.582.4%
United States +0.7585.6%
United States +1.088.7%
United States +1.595.1%
United States +2.097.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
United States win1.64
Draw4.64
Australia win5.67
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
15.1%
2–0
12.2%
1–1
10.0%
2–1
9.5%
0–1
7.4%
0–0
7.2%
Goal margin
United States wins by more than 1 goals34%
Australia wins by more than 1 goals5%