Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Scotland
18%
Draw
26%
Morocco
55%
Actual result: Scotland 0 – 1 Morocco · Morocco winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Scotland, negative favours Morocco) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Scotland - Morocco)-0.80
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Scotland / Morocco0.85 / 1.65
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.2% / 52.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.1%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Scotland / draw / Morocco)16.6% / 43.8% / 39.6%
A goal in the first half66.8%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
Morocco lead at half-time then Morocco win34.6%
Level at half-time then Morocco win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Scotland's side
Scotland −2.03.8%
Scotland −1.755.0%
Scotland −1.56.1%
Scotland −1.259.2%
Scotland −1.012.3%
Scotland −0.7515.4%
Scotland −0.518.4%
Scotland −0.2525.0%
Scotland draw no bet (0.0)31.5%
Scotland +0.2538.1%
Scotland +0.544.7%
Scotland +0.7550.8%
Scotland +1.057.0%
Scotland +1.569.3%
Scotland +2.078.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Scotland win5.43
Draw3.81
Morocco win1.81
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
12.7%
1–1
12.4%
0–2
11.1%
1–2
9.5%
0–0
9.1%
0–3
6.1%
Goal margin
Scotland wins by more than 1 goals6%
Morocco wins by more than 1 goals31%