Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Plymouth
70%
Exeter
12%
Actual result: Plymouth 2 – 0 Exeter · Plymouth winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Plymouth, negative favours Exeter) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Plymouth - Exeter)+1.46
Expected total goals3.12
Expected goals Plymouth / Exeter2.29 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.0% / 49.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.1%
Over 2.5 goals 60.2%
Over 3.5 goals 37.9%
First half
First-half result (Plymouth / draw / Exeter)51.4% / 35.7% / 12.9%
A goal in the first half75.0%
Two or more in the first half41.3%
Half-time then full-time
Plymouth lead at half-time then Plymouth win47.0%
Level at half-time then Plymouth win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw11.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Plymouth's side
Plymouth −2.036.4%
Plymouth −1.7541.7%
Plymouth −1.546.9%
Plymouth −1.2552.6%
Plymouth −1.058.4%
Plymouth −0.7564.1%
Plymouth −0.569.9%
Plymouth −0.2574.5%
Plymouth draw no bet (0.0)79.1%
Plymouth +0.2583.7%
Plymouth +0.588.3%
Plymouth +0.7590.3%
Plymouth +1.092.4%
Plymouth +1.596.4%
Plymouth +2.097.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Plymouth win1.43
Draw5.43
Exeter win8.55
Over 2.51.66
Under 2.52.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Plymouth wins by more than 1 goals47%
Exeter wins by more than 1 goals4%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards5.2
2.5+ cards in the match43%
