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01:45 18/10
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Spanish La Liga

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction

Valencia
02:00, 18/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Athletic Bilbao

Quick preview

Valencia meet Athletic Bilbao in the La Liga, kick-off 02:00 on 18/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Valencia are 19th (5 points from 8 games) and Athletic Bilbao are 11th (8 points from 6 games). Jarvis gives Valencia a 28% chance to win, 31% for a draw and 41% for Athletic Bilbao; the score Jarvis predicts is 1-2. Jarvis expects 2.4 goals in the match: both teams score with 49%, 3 or more goals with 42%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Valencia
28%
Draw
31%
Athletic Bilbao
41%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Valencia, negative favours Athletic Bilbao) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Valencia - Athletic Bilbao)-0.26
Expected total goals2.35
Expected goals Valencia / Athletic Bilbao1.05 / 1.31
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.1% / 50.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.9%
Over 2.5 goals 41.8%
Over 3.5 goals 21.2%
First half
First-half result (Valencia / draw / Athletic Bilbao)22.3% / 47.6% / 30.1%
A goal in the first half64.0%
Two or more in the first half29.9%
Half-time then full-time
Athletic Bilbao lead at half-time then Athletic Bilbao win24.4%
Level at half-time then draw20.5%
Valencia lead at half-time then Valencia win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Valencia's side
Valencia −2.07.3%
Valencia −1.759.3%
Valencia −1.511.3%
Valencia −1.2515.5%
Valencia −1.019.6%
Valencia −0.7523.8%
Valencia −0.528.0%
Valencia −0.2535.8%
Valencia draw no bet (0.0)43.6%
Valencia +0.2551.4%
Valencia +0.559.3%
Valencia +0.7564.6%
Valencia +1.069.9%
Valencia +1.580.6%
Valencia +2.086.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Valencia win3.57
Draw3.20
Athletic Bilbao win2.45
Over 2.52.39
Under 2.51.72

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Valencia wins by more than 1 goals11%
Athletic Bilbao wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match45%

Probability trajectory

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao lineups

ValenciaFormation 5-4-1
Coach: J. Aguirre
Starting lineup
1S. DimitrievskiGK
24Pablo MaffeoDF
5Cesar TarregaDF
18PepeluDF
12J. de HaasDF
14Jose GayaDF
19Dani RabaMF
8Javi GuerraMF
2G. RodriguezMF
7A. DanjumaMF
9Hugo DuroFW
Substitutes
10H. ElliottMF
22Arnau MartinezDF
33Aaron MayolMF
27David OtorbiFW
11Luis RiojaFW
39R. SatoMF
23F. UgrinicMF
21Jesus VazquezDF
25K. van OevelenGK
15A. DiengMF
4M. DiakhabyDF
37Aimar BlazquezFW
Athletic BilbaoFormation 4-2-3-1
Coach: E. Terzic
Starting lineup
1Unai SimonGK
15Hugo RinconDF
4Aitor ParedesDF
14Aymeric LaporteDF
31J. Louis-JeanDF
16Ruiz de GalarretaMF
24Benat GerenabarrenaMF
23Robert NavarroMF
28Peio CanalesMF
7Alex BerenguerMF
9I. WilliamsFW
Substitutes
11Gorka GuruzetaFW
17YuriDF
12Jesus AresoDF
33Christian ImgaFW
18Mikel JauregizarMF
13Alex PadillaGK
6Benat PradosMF
20Alejandro RegoMF
21Maroan SannadiFW
22Nico SerranoFW
3Dani VivianDF
5YerayDF

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao injury report and team news

Valencia
  • S. CanosOut · Knee Injury
  • J. CopeteOut · Knee Injury
  • D. FoulquierOut · Injury
  • D. LopezOut · Knee Injury
  • U. SadiqOut · Muscle Injury
Athletic Bilbao
  • A. DjaloOut · Illness
  • U. EgiluzOut · Knee Injury
  • O. SancetOut · Muscle Injury
  • N. WilliamsOut · Thigh Injury

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao team form

ValenciaDLWLL
Last 5 matches
11/10/2026Racing Santander (away)2–2
20/09/2026Real Sociedad (home)2–3
15/09/2026Alaves (away)1–0
11/09/2026Sevilla (away)0–1
06/09/2026Barcelona (home)0–5
Athletic BilbaoWDDW
Last 5 matches
02/10/2026Real Sociedad (away)1–0
19/09/2026Alaves (home)0–0
12/09/2026Elche (home)1–1
05/09/2026Atletico Madrid (home)3–0

Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Valencia won 3, drew 1, lost 6. Valencia scored 9 and conceded 12 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
10/05/2026Athletic Club0–1Valencia
04/02/2026Valencia1–2Athletic Club
20/09/2025Valencia2–0Athletic Club
18/05/2025Valencia0–1Athletic Club
28/08/2024Athletic Club1–0Valencia
20/01/2024Valencia1–0Athletic Club
29/10/2023Athletic Club2–2Valencia
11/02/2023Valencia1–2Athletic Club
26/01/2023Valencia1–3Athletic Club
21/08/2022Athletic Club1–0Valencia

Match information

Referee
Adrian Cordero Vega
Venue
Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
Round
9

Next fixtures of both teams

Valencia
  • vs VillarrealSat 24/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Elche (away)Mon 02/11, 00:30 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
Athletic Bilbao
  • vs Levante (away)Thu 22/10, 01:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs GetafeSun 25/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Barcelona9+3027
2Atletico Madrid9+1122
3Real Betis9+219
...
10Celta Vigo8+28
11Athletic Club6+18
12Espanyol9-18
...
18Elche9-67
19Valencia8-95
20Malaga8-94

See the full La Liga table