Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
ESTAC Troyes
23%
Lens
51%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours ESTAC Troyes, negative favours Lens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (ESTAC Troyes - Lens)-0.64
Expected total goals2.94
Expected goals ESTAC Troyes / Lens1.15 / 1.79
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.3% / 41.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 56.4%
Over 3.5 goals 34.0%
First half
First-half result (ESTAC Troyes / draw / Lens)20.4% / 41.6% / 38.0%
A goal in the first half72.1%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Lens lead at half-time then Lens win32.0%
Level at half-time then Lens win17.2%
Level at half-time then draw15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from ESTAC Troyes's side
ESTAC Troyes −2.06.2%
ESTAC Troyes −1.757.9%
ESTAC Troyes −1.59.5%
ESTAC Troyes −1.2512.9%
ESTAC Troyes −1.016.3%
ESTAC Troyes −0.7519.7%
ESTAC Troyes −0.523.1%
ESTAC Troyes −0.2529.6%
ESTAC Troyes draw no bet (0.0)36.0%
ESTAC Troyes +0.2542.5%
ESTAC Troyes +0.548.9%
ESTAC Troyes +0.7554.4%
ESTAC Troyes +1.059.9%
ESTAC Troyes +1.570.8%
ESTAC Troyes +2.078.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
ESTAC Troyes win4.33
Draw3.87
Lens win1.96
Over 2.51.77
Under 2.52.29
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
ESTAC Troyes wins by more than 1 goals10%
Lens wins by more than 1 goals29%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%
