Portuguese Primeira Liga

Santa Clara vs CD Nacional Funchal prediction

2 – 2
Full-time

Match summary

Santa Clara vs CD Nacional Funchal (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 11/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Santa Clara 49%, the draw 31% and CD Nacional Funchal 19%; the actual result had a 31% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Santa Clara
49%
Draw
31%
CD Nacional Funchal
19%
Actual result: Santa Clara 2 – 2 CD Nacional Funchal · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Santa Clara, negative favours CD Nacional Funchal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Santa Clara - CD Nacional Funchal)+0.59
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals Santa Clara / CD Nacional Funchal1.35 / 0.76
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.0% / 59.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 63.9%
Over 2.5 goals 35.4%
Over 3.5 goals 16.4%
First half
First-half result (Santa Clara / draw / CD Nacional Funchal)34.5% / 49.1% / 16.3%
A goal in the first half60.3%
Two or more in the first half25.6%
Half-time then full-time
Santa Clara lead at half-time then Santa Clara win29.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.7%
Level at half-time then Santa Clara win18.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Santa Clara's side
Santa Clara −2.016.9%
Santa Clara −1.7520.7%
Santa Clara −1.524.6%
Santa Clara −1.2530.8%
Santa Clara −1.037.0%
Santa Clara −0.7543.2%
Santa Clara −0.549.4%
Santa Clara −0.2557.2%
Santa Clara draw no bet (0.0)65.0%
Santa Clara +0.2572.8%
Santa Clara +0.580.6%
Santa Clara +0.7583.9%
Santa Clara +1.087.2%
Santa Clara +1.593.8%
Santa Clara +2.096.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Santa Clara win2.03
Draw3.21
CD Nacional Funchal win5.15
Over 2.52.83
Under 2.51.55

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Santa Clara wins by more than 1 goals25%
CD Nacional Funchal wins by more than 1 goals6%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 11/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.