FIFA World Cup
South Africa vs Canada prediction
South Africa
0 – 1
Full-time
Canada
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
South Africa
17%
Draw
26%
Canada
56%
Actual result: South Africa 0 – 1 Canada · Canada winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours South Africa, negative favours Canada) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (South Africa - Canada)-0.84
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals South Africa / Canada0.83 / 1.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.8% / 53.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.3%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (South Africa / draw / Canada)15.9% / 43.9% / 40.2%
A goal in the first half66.7%
Two or more in the first half31.8%
Half-time then full-time
Canada ahead then Canada win35.3%
level then Canada win19.5%
level then draw17.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from South Africa
South Africa give 2 trái (−2.0)3.5%
South Africa give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)4.6%
South Africa give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)5.7%
South Africa give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)8.7%
South Africa give 1 trái (−1.0)11.6%
South Africa give 3/4 trái (−0.75)14.5%
South Africa give nửa trái (−0.5)17.5%
South Africa give 1/4 trái (−0.25)24.0%
Level ball (0.0)30.6%
South Africa receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)37.1%
South Africa receive nửa trái (+0.5)43.7%
South Africa receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)49.9%
South Africa receive 1 trái (+1.0)56.0%
South Africa receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)68.4%
South Africa receive 2 trái (+2.0)77.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
South Africa win5.72
Draw3.81
Canada win1.78
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
12.7%
1–1
12.4%
0–2
11.4%
1–2
9.5%
0–0
9.2%
0–3
6.4%
Goal margin
South Africa wins by more than 1 goals6%
Canada wins by more than 1 goals32%