Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Sporting Gijon
44%
Sabadell
24%
Actual result: Sporting Gijon 0 – 0 Sabadell · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Gijon, negative favours Sabadell) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Sporting Gijon - Sabadell)+0.42
Expected total goals2.25
Expected goals Sporting Gijon / Sabadell1.34 / 0.91
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.2% / 53.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.9%
Over 2.5 goals 39.1%
Over 3.5 goals 19.1%
First half
First-half result (Sporting Gijon / draw / Sabadell)32.0% / 48.7% / 19.3%
A goal in the first half62.3%
Two or more in the first half28.4%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Gijon lead at half-time then Sporting Gijon win26.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.5%
Level at half-time then Sporting Gijon win17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Sporting Gijon's side
Sporting Gijon −2.015.0%
Sporting Gijon −1.7518.4%
Sporting Gijon −1.521.9%
Sporting Gijon −1.2527.6%
Sporting Gijon −1.033.2%
Sporting Gijon −0.7538.9%
Sporting Gijon −0.544.5%
Sporting Gijon −0.2552.5%
Sporting Gijon draw no bet (0.0)60.5%
Sporting Gijon +0.2568.5%
Sporting Gijon +0.576.5%
Sporting Gijon +0.7580.2%
Sporting Gijon +1.083.9%
Sporting Gijon +1.591.2%
Sporting Gijon +2.094.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Sporting Gijon win2.25
Draw3.13
Sabadell win4.25
Over 2.52.55
Under 2.51.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Sporting Gijon wins by more than 1 goals22%
Sabadell wins by more than 1 goals9%
