Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Vasteras SK
17%
Djurgardens
61%
Actual result: Vasteras SK 1 – 0 Djurgardens · Vasteras SK winJarvis gave this outcome: 17%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Vasteras SK, negative favours Djurgardens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Vasteras SK - Djurgardens)-1.07
Expected total goals3.08
Expected goals Vasteras SK / Djurgardens1.01 / 2.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.2% / 43.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.0%
Over 2.5 goals 59.6%
Over 3.5 goals 37.2%
First half
First-half result (Vasteras SK / draw / Djurgardens)16.6% / 38.1% / 45.3%
A goal in the first half74.3%
Two or more in the first half41.1%
Half-time then full-time
Djurgardens lead at half-time then Djurgardens win39.9%
Level at half-time then Djurgardens win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw12.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Vasteras SK's side
Vasteras SK −2.03.9%
Vasteras SK −1.755.0%
Vasteras SK −1.56.1%
Vasteras SK −1.258.8%
Vasteras SK −1.011.5%
Vasteras SK −0.7514.2%
Vasteras SK −0.516.9%
Vasteras SK −0.2522.3%
Vasteras SK draw no bet (0.0)27.8%
Vasteras SK +0.2533.2%
Vasteras SK +0.538.7%
Vasteras SK +0.7544.4%
Vasteras SK +1.050.1%
Vasteras SK +1.561.6%
Vasteras SK +2.071.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Vasteras SK win5.93
Draw4.59
Djurgardens win1.63
Over 2.51.68
Under 2.52.47
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Vasteras SK wins by more than 1 goals6%
Djurgardens wins by more than 1 goals38%
