Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Vikingur Reykjavik
45%
Actual result: Vikingur Reykjavik 3 – 2 Thun · Vikingur Reykjavik winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Vikingur Reykjavik, negative favours Thun) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Vikingur Reykjavik - Thun)+0.32
Expected total goals3.25
Expected goals Vikingur Reykjavik / Thun1.79 / 1.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.7% / 35.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.2%
Over 2.5 goals 63.0%
Over 3.5 goals 40.8%
First half
First-half result (Vikingur Reykjavik / draw / Thun)34.8% / 39.0% / 26.2%
A goal in the first half75.9%
Two or more in the first half43.8%
Half-time then full-time
Vikingur Reykjavik lead at half-time then Vikingur Reykjavik win27.5%
Thun lead at half-time then Thun win18.2%
Level at half-time then Vikingur Reykjavik win14.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Vikingur Reykjavik's side
Vikingur Reykjavik −2.017.6%
Vikingur Reykjavik −1.7521.0%
Vikingur Reykjavik −1.524.5%
Vikingur Reykjavik −1.2529.5%
Vikingur Reykjavik −1.034.5%
Vikingur Reykjavik −0.7539.6%
Vikingur Reykjavik −0.544.6%
Vikingur Reykjavik −0.2550.7%
Vikingur Reykjavik draw no bet (0.0)56.9%
Vikingur Reykjavik +0.2563.0%
Vikingur Reykjavik +0.569.1%
Vikingur Reykjavik +0.7573.2%
Vikingur Reykjavik +1.077.3%
Vikingur Reykjavik +1.585.4%
Vikingur Reykjavik +2.090.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Vikingur Reykjavik win2.24
Draw4.09
Thun win3.23
Over 2.51.59
Under 2.52.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by more than 1 goals24%
Thun wins by more than 1 goals15%
