UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Vllaznia Shkoder vs Malisheva prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Vllaznia Shkoder vs Malisheva (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 10/07/2026, finished 2-1: Vllaznia Shkoder won. Before the match Jarvis gave Vllaznia Shkoder 40%, the draw 30% and Malisheva 30%; the actual result had a 40% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Vllaznia Shkoder

40%

Draw

30%

Malisheva

30%

Actual result: Vllaznia Shkoder 2 – 1 Malisheva · Vllaznia Shkoder winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Vllaznia Shkoder, negative favours Malisheva) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Vllaznia Shkoder - Malisheva)+0.20

Expected total goals2.41

Expected goals Vllaznia Shkoder / Malisheva1.30 / 1.10

Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 70.8%

Over 2.5 goals 43.2%

Over 3.5 goals 22.2%

First half

First-half result (Vllaznia Shkoder / draw / Malisheva)29.6% / 46.7% / 23.6%

A goal in the first half65.0%

Two or more in the first half30.6%

Half-time then full-time

Vllaznia Shkoder lead at half-time then Vllaznia Shkoder win23.6%

Level at half-time then draw19.7%

Malisheva lead at half-time then Malisheva win17.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Vllaznia Shkoder's side

Vllaznia Shkoder −2.012.6%

Vllaznia Shkoder −1.7515.6%

Vllaznia Shkoder −1.518.7%

Vllaznia Shkoder −1.2523.9%

Vllaznia Shkoder −1.029.2%

Vllaznia Shkoder −0.7534.4%

Vllaznia Shkoder −0.539.7%

Vllaznia Shkoder −0.2547.3%

Vllaznia Shkoder draw no bet (0.0)54.9%

Vllaznia Shkoder +0.2562.5%

Vllaznia Shkoder +0.570.1%

Vllaznia Shkoder +0.7574.5%

Vllaznia Shkoder +1.078.9%

Vllaznia Shkoder +1.587.6%

Vllaznia Shkoder +2.091.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Vllaznia Shkoder win2.52

Draw3.29

Malisheva win3.34

Over 2.52.32

Under 2.51.76

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Vllaznia Shkoder wins by more than 1 goals19%

Malisheva wins by more than 1 goals12%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 10/07 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.